A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
