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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers improving together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still