Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
