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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.