UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.